Jharkhand is in trouble again! The political uncertainty gripping the state has reached disastrous proportions with the Bhartiya Janata Party withdrawing support to the five-month old government.

Author: Rahul Bajaj
Date: May 27, 2010

Well, Jharkhand is in trouble again! The political uncertainty gripping the state has reached disastrous proportions, with the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), who evidently got fed up with the "Yes, No, May be" mindset of Chief Minister Shibu Soren, withdrawing support to the five-month old government.

The move has reduced the JMM-led government to a minority and Shibu Soren has been given a week to prove majority while former Chief Minister Babulal Marandi has already started exploring options of forming a new government. Governor M.O.H. Farook has asked Soren to prove his majority on the floor of the house by May 31. Soren had gone to meet the governor around 5.30 pm after he was summoned following withdrawal of support by the BJP.

Earlier, the BJP in a letter to the governor withdrew support to the Soren government. "We have withdrawn support to the Shibu Soren government as political uncertainty had been lingering in the state for a long period of time," state BJP president Raghubar Das told reporters.

BJP leaders, including Das, party national general secretary Arjun Munda, and others, met Governor Farook Monday noon and handed over the letter formally withdrawing support to the Soren government.

The BJP and the JMM have a strength of 18 each in the 81-member assembly. Of the other coalition partners, the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) has five members and the Janata Dal-United two.

Jharkhand has been in the middle of a game of musical chairs since April 27, when Soren voted against the BJP's cut motions in the Lok Sabha despite assurance to the main opposition party in parliament. This led the BJP, a junior partner in the Jharkhand coalition, to announce withdrawal of its support to the JMM-led government on April 28.

One day later, BJP put its withdrawal decision on hold and on April 30, Soren said he was ready to resign from his post.

On May 8, the JMM announced that it would support the BJP. Ten days later, May 18, BJP agreed to a rotation of power with Soren. On May 20, however, Soren refused to quit and announced that talks were on with both the BJP and the Congress for formation of an alternative government in Jharkhand. On May 23, BJP decided to withdraw support and a day later they went ahead and did just that.

In the wake of these developments, the state, which has always found itself under the shadow of political instability, once again needs some drastic changes to get back on track. So what next for Jharkhand?

Soon after the withdrawal, Congress, which was so far in a 'wait and watch' situation, has swung into action to facilitate the formation of an alternate, 'secular' government, led by Babulal Marandi’s Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM), a UPA constituent comprising Congress and JMM. The party hopes that JMM will come to the UPA fold after getting a raw deal from BJP.

The glitch here, however, is that the JVM-P is against supporting a JMM-led rule. If the JVM-P, JMM and the Congress come together, they will easily cross the majority mark in the 81-member assembly. Congress has 14 legislators, JVM-P has 11 and the JMM 18. The JVM-P is in a pre-poll alliance with the Congress and wants to lead the next government itself or face assembly polls.

Congress, meanwhile, is looking for an alternative to form the government in Jharkhand. If the JMM, the Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) come together, they will cross the majority mark. The AJSU and the RJD have five legislators each.

This number game of political parties will, in the end, boil down to the JMM. The party, with 18 MLAs in a House of 81, holds the key to government formation -- whether NDA or UPA!